週間天気予報の検証結果 (令和元年の年集計) 令和 2年 1月31日 気象庁予報部発表
| | | 【降水の有無(0-24時)】(%) | | 【最高・最低気温(0-24時)】(℃) |
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地方予報区 | | | 3日目 | 4日目 | 5日目 | 6日目 | 7日目 | 3-7平均 | | 明後日 | 3日目 | 4日目 | 5日目 | 6日目 | 7日目 | 2-7平均 |
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北海道地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 78 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 75 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.4 |
| | 捕捉率 | 61 | 55 | 48 | 37 | 26 | 45 | 最高気温ME | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.2 |
| | 一致率 | 67 | 65 | 63 | 60 | 58 | 62 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 | 17 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| | 空振り率 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 67 | 65 | 63 | 60 | 58 | 62 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 83 | 81 | 78 | 76 | 73 | 78 | | | | | | | | |
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東北地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 79 | 75 | 73 | 71 | 69 | 73 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 |
| | 捕捉率 | 61 | 54 | 47 | 39 | 30 | 46 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.3 |
| | 一致率 | 74 | 70 | 69 | 66 | 63 | 68 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 19 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| | 空振り率 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 74 | 70 | 69 | 66 | 63 | 68 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 80 | 77 | 74 | 72 | 69 | 74 | | | | | | | | |
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関東甲信地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 81 | 77 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 75 | 最高気温RMSE | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 |
| | 捕捉率 | 64 | 56 | 48 | 36 | 27 | 46 | 最高気温ME | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 72 | 66 | 64 | 60 | 55 | 63 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 23 | 17 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| | 空振り率 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 72 | 66 | 64 | 60 | 55 | 63 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 84 | 81 | 78 | 75 | 72 | 78 | | | | | | | | |
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東海地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 79 | 77 | 76 | 73 | 69 | 75 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| | 捕捉率 | 64 | 56 | 48 | 38 | 27 | 47 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 71 | 70 | 69 | 66 | 59 | 67 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 21 | 24 | 18 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| | 空振り率 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 最低気温ME | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 71 | 70 | 69 | 66 | 59 | 67 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 83 | 80 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 77 | | | | | | | | |
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北陸地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 70 | 67 | 74 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| | 捕捉率 | 79 | 73 | 69 | 59 | 48 | 66 | 最高気温ME | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.2 |
| | 一致率 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 72 | 72 | 75 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 10 | 12 | 14 | 19 | 24 | 16 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| | 空振り率 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 最低気温ME | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 78 | 76 | 75 | 72 | 72 | 75 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 82 | 77 | 75 | 69 | 65 | 73 | | | | | | | | |
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近畿地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 79 | 78 | 76 | 73 | 70 | 75 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| | 捕捉率 | 65 | 58 | 47 | 36 | 26 | 46 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 70 | 71 | 70 | 68 | 60 | 68 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| | 空振り率 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 最低気温ME | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 70 | 71 | 70 | 68 | 60 | 68 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 83 | 81 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 77 | | | | | | | | |
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中国地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 80 | 78 | 75 | 70 | 67 | 74 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| | 捕捉率 | 63 | 58 | 52 | 35 | 23 | 46 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 72 | 71 | 65 | 56 | 49 | 63 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 18 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| | 空振り率 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 72 | 71 | 65 | 56 | 49 | 63 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 83 | 81 | 78 | 73 | 70 | 77 | | | | | | | | |
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四国地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 81 | 79 | 78 | 75 | 71 | 77 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.0 |
| | 捕捉率 | 65 | 59 | 53 | 42 | 28 | 49 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 70 | 67 | 68 | 65 | 57 | 66 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 18 | 22 | 16 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| | 空振り率 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 70 | 67 | 68 | 65 | 57 | 66 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 85 | 83 | 81 | 78 | 74 | 80 | | | | | | | | |
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九州北部地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 82 | 78 | 77 | 75 | 73 | 77 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 |
| | 捕捉率 | 67 | 56 | 49 | 41 | 32 | 49 | 最高気温ME | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 72 | 68 | 67 | 63 | 63 | 67 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 10 | 14 | 16 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| | 空振り率 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 最低気温ME | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 72 | 68 | 67 | 63 | 63 | 67 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 86 | 82 | 80 | 77 | 75 | 80 | | | | | | | | |
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九州南部地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 80 | 76 | 74 | 71 | 68 | 74 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 |
| | 捕捉率 | 67 | 59 | 53 | 45 | 31 | 51 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | 0.0 |
| | 一致率 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 68 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 25 | 18 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 |
| | 空振り率 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 75 | 71 | 68 | 64 | 62 | 68 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 82 | 79 | 76 | 73 | 69 | 76 | | | | | | | | |
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沖縄地方 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 66 | 68 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| | 捕捉率 | 50 | 44 | 36 | 28 | 23 | 36 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 65 | 63 | 60 | 55 | 58 | 60 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 18 | 21 | 23 | 26 | 28 | 23 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.5 |
| | 空振り率 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 65 | 63 | 60 | 55 | 58 | 60 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 74 | 72 | 70 | 68 | 67 | 70 | | | | | | | | |
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全国平均 | | 降水の有無の適中率 | 79 | 77 | 75 | 72 | 70 | 74 | 最高気温RMSE | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| | 捕捉率 | 64 | 57 | 49 | 39 | 29 | 48 | 最高気温ME | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.1 |
| | 一致率 | 71 | 68 | 67 | 63 | 59 | 66 | | | | | | | | |
| | 見逃し率 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 18 | 最低気温RMSE | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.8 |
| | 空振り率 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 最低気温ME | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
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| | 「降水あり」予報の適中率 | 71 | 68 | 67 | 63 | 59 | 66 | | | | | | | | |
| | 「降水なし」予報の適中率 | 82 | 80 | 77 | 74 | 71 | 77 | | | | | | | | |
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| | | 単位:% | | | | | | | 単位:℃ | | | | | | |
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| | | | | | | | | | RMSE:二乗平均平方根誤差 |
| | | | | | | | | | ME:平均誤差 |
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