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HOME > El Niño Monitoring > El Niño Outlook

El Niño Outlook ( May 2024 - November 2024 )

Last Updated: 10 May 2024
( Next update will be on 10 June 2024 )


[El Niño / La Niña]

In April 2024, the sea surface temperature (SST) for the NINO.3 region was above normal with a deviation of +0.8°C, which fell by 0.4°C from March 2024 (Fig.3 and Table). The five-month running mean value of the NINO.3 SST deviation for February 2024 was +1.7°C, and the value has been above the El Niño threshold of +0.5°C for eleven consecutive months since April 2023 (Fig.1 and Table), but it began to fall from maximum +2.2°C in December 2023. SSTs in the equatorial Pacific were above normal mainly in the central part (Fig.4 and Fig.6). Subsurface water temperatures were below normal in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig.5 and Fig.7). In the atmosphere, convective activity near the dateline over the equatorial Pacific was near normal and easterly winds in the lower troposphere (i.e., trade winds) over the central equatorial Pacific were also near normal (Fig.8, Fig.9, Fig.10). These oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the equatorial Pacific indicate that El Niño conditions are gradually weakening.

JMA's seasonal ensemble prediction system predicts that the NINO.3 SST will gradually decrease as the cold subsurface water volume in the equatorial Pacific moves eastward, and will become near normal during boreal spring (Fig.11). Then, it is predicted that trade winds over the western to central equatorial Pacific will be stronger than normal and the cold subsurface water volume in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific will strengthen further. As a result, it is expected that NINO.3 SST will become near or below normal during boreal summer and autumn (Fig.11). In conclusion, El Niño conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during this boreal spring (90%). It is more likely that La Niña conditions will develop by boreal autumn (60%) than ENSO-neutral conditions will continue (40%).

[Western Pacific and Indian Ocean]

The area-averaged SST in the tropical western Pacific (NINO.WEST) region was above normal in April (Fig.3)(*). The index is likely to be near or above normal until boreal autumn (Fig.12).

The area-averaged SST in the tropical Indian Ocean (IOBW) region was above normal in April (Fig.3). The index is likely to remain above normal until the first half of boreal early summer, then gradually approach near normal (Fig.13).

(*) This sentence was corrected on 13 May 2024.

[Impacts]

The following weather conditions observed in the world in April were roughly consistent with those observed in April during the past El Niño events.

- Above normal temperatures from Japan to Southeast Asia, from the tropical Indian Ocean to the southern part of West Africa, and from Central America to the central part of South America.

- Below normal temperature in Pakistan.

- Above normal precipitation in eastern China and Pakistan.

- Below normal precipitation from the Philippines to the Indochina Peninsula.

The seasonal climate outlook for Japan is available here .

Composite analyses for ENSO impacts are available here .



Produced by Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency
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